Monday, March 8, 2010

Bonds and Inflation

Inflation breakeven rate refers to the difference between the nominal yield on a conventional bond and the real yield on an inflation-indexed bond of the same maturity. It has been used extensively as a tool to obtain the expected inflation.

If the breakevens are rolling over... one possible explanation is that, while the real yield holds steady, yields on conventional bonds are falling (i.e. conventional bonds are being bid higher) (hence the difference between the two yields is also falling). Funds could be flowing into bonds because deflation is considered more of a threat than inflation.

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